Self-driving cars and why you won’t own one
A few years ago, self-driving cars on public roads seemed like a crazy sci-fi fantasy. But the fast improvements in artificial intelligence and machine learning opens new doors for technology, and within few years self-driving cars can be mainstream. According to the Boston Consulting Group, people’s skepticism of self-driving cars has been shrinking every year.
Self-driving, or autonomous cars, have been tested in the US for a couple of years now. Companies such as Apple, Uber and Tesla have tested autonomous vehicles on non-public and public roads, with varying degrees of autonomy. The varying degrees of autonomy ranges from level one which is simply driver assistance functions (common in many new cars), to level five, fully self-driving and self-operating cars which requires no human interference at all. Until recently, permits for testing autonomous cars has only been given in Arizona, US, and most tests have been relatively small-scale pilot projects with a safety driver behind the wheel.
Waymo — the pioneer
Waymo, a subsidiary company of Google-owning Alphabet, has on several occasions proven to be ahead of the game. Waymo has been working on autonomous driving technologies for longer than any other company. They have the lowest rate of disengagement, or incidents where humans had to take control of the vehicle. They were the first to receive permit to test completely driverless cars on public roads in Arizona, and have recently been granted permit for driverless testing in California, as the first company.
In late 2018, Waymo launched the first ever autonomous taxi service in Arizona. Still, Waymo approaches this cautiously, keeping a safety driver behind the wheel most of the time. The service is not available for general public, but available for 400 people called Early Riders, who get to use the service to work, school and running errands. Riding with a Waymo One has been described as driving with a super cautious student driver, so even Waymo has a way to go to make this a legitimate substitute to other transportation services. Waymo has not given a launch date for the general public, but we might be looking at some degree of commercialization of their taxi service in 2019.
Forget about owning one
If you think about owning own your own self-driving car, you might be missing the point. I believe autonomous cars first and foremost have potential as a service. Autonomous technologies will fundamentally change the car industry we see today. For people who live in urban areas, different forms of ride and car sharing, like Uber and Lyft, might be the future of transportation. I expect most people to access autonomous cars by subscribing to ride or car sharing services.
Self-driving cars combined with car sharing opens for efficiency and natural regulation of supply and demand. In Oslo, taxis spend over 50 % of their driving time without passengers in the car, which is an indicator of excess capacity. Using car sharing platforms that communicate directly with the autonomous cars, exactly the right amount of cars could be on the road at any given point of time. This way, fewer total cars would be needed and the productivity of each car would increase.
Personal vehicles typically spend more than 90 % of their time parked. Autonomous cars where no drivers are needed, could operate 24/7, and be available for constant access. Self-driving cars don’t need breaks except for refueling, and could be constantly moving. This way, there would be less need for parking spaces. This will again positively impact the urban climate and free up space for other uses.
The AI of the cars would make smart decisions in terms of picking up passengers that are nearby, driving smart routes, and avoiding unnecessary driving. The goal would be to have passengers in the cars most of the time.
Humans suck at driving
Humans in traffic are far from perfect, in fact we oftentimes suck. Due to our cognitive constraints, we react slow, we forget to check our mirrors, and occasionally crash. The companies who develop self-driving cars are currently collecting large amounts of ride data that through AI and machine learning will make the ride smarter and safer. Implementation and use of the 5G network will allow the vehicles to instantaneously communicate and navigate around each other (see video linked below). AI, 5G and tons of sensors, allow for a smoother ride than any human is capable of. If the technological advances continue at the current pace, self-driving cars will increase driving efficiency and potentially reduce traffic congestion.
Waymo has asserted that their cars are safer than any human on the road. As the technology further advances, it can significantly reduce fatalities in traffic. The autonomous cars are able to automatically respond to fast-paced situations and avoid accidents humans otherwise would have gotten in to. Hopefully, Waymo’s technologies advance to the point where you don’t feel like you are riding with an overly cautious student driver, but rather a safe, yet efficient driver.
Unemployed taxi drivers?
As I mentioned earlier, autonomous vehicles will fundamentally change the car industry, but it will also change other industries. As with the introduction of automation in most industries, people fear their job security.
Self-driving cars on public roads will be rolled out on a small scale, but there is bound to be less demand for human drivers. As we have seen several times in history, new technologies don’t necessarily create fewer jobs. However, it often requires a redistribution of labor.
Fully self-driving vehicles will eventually make professional drivers unnecessary. However, if cars are to be driving 24/7, the need for repairs and maintenance will be much higher. This is still a field dominated by manual labor, that would consequently need to employ more people. I also believe the need for logistical jobs that monitor the cars and the traffic flow, to be higher. Impactful technologies create new jobs that didn’t use to exist.
Norwegian adoption is not close
As we see, the autonomous car innovation is currently happening in the US, with the main drivers behind these technologies being American tech companies. From a Norwegian standpoint, I believe we are not facilitated for accepting these technologies anytime soon. The reason for this, is the absence car sharing services like Uber and Lyft, given that personal ownership of self-driving cars not will be as relevant.
Uber operated in Norway between 2014 and 2017, but has been put on hold indefinitely ever since. This is due to Norwegian regulations which require all drivers who do personal transport to have a permit. After several debates with the Oslo police, Uber decided to pull out of the Norwegian market.
Without any car sharing services like Uber and Lyft present in Norway, I have a hard time seeing any significant adoption of driverless cars. We might see other autonomous vehicles, like buses, subways and trams.
Uber has discussed the opportunity of making a comeback in Norway, but that would require significant changes to the current legislation. Uber has already started the influencing process. They have written a letter with potential legislative changes to the Norwegian Ministry of Transport and Communications (Samferdselsdepartementet), but no news has been given yet. I believe legalizing services like Uber and Lyft in Norway would be a step in the right direction. This will certainly make personal transportation more accessible and affordable, and open for self-driving cars.
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The former sci-fi fantasy of cars that drive them self is becoming a reality. Perhaps we don’t hear much of autonomous technologies in Norway, but innovation is happening across the pond, with a few key players leading the way. Thanks to these players, we might see autonomous cars on public roads in 2019, and if certain legislative changes are approved, we might even see them on Norwegian roads. Just how transformative for the industry and the market this technology will be, remains to be seen.
In the video you see Waymo’s own 360° demonstration of a ride with their Waymo One.